National comparison
How forecast performance varies across the U.S.
Compare typical temperature forecast errors and warm or cool tendencies across cities with available archived ModelSpread accuracy results.
Forecast accuracy map
High-temperature typical miss · Forecast day 1 · All year
Swipe sideways to explore the full map. Select a dot for that city’s complete monthly and lead-time record. Closely spaced cities may overlap; every city is also available below.
Cities on this map
Only cities with a dedicated local accuracy page are included. Listed alphabetically.
AberdeenSD · ABR2.8°F typical missAlbuquerqueNM · ABQ1.7°F typical missAnaheimCA · FUL2.5°F typical missArlingtonTX · GPM2.4°F typical missAtlantaGA · FTY2.5°F typical missAugustaGA · DNL2.1°F typical missAuroraCO · BKF2.5°F typical missAustinTX · ATT2.3°F typical missBakersfieldCA · BFL2.3°F typical missBaltimoreMD · DMH2.5°F typical missBangorME · BGR2.2°F typical missBaton RougeLA · BTR1.8°F typical missBendOR · RDM2.6°F typical missBillingsMT · BIL2.5°F typical missBirminghamAL · BHM2.1°F typical missBismarckND · BIS2.8°F typical missBoiseID · BOI2.2°F typical missBostonMA · BOS2.6°F typical missBozemanMT · BZN2.9°F typical missBuffaloNY · BUF1.8°F typical missBurlingtonVT · BTV2.4°F typical missCape CoralFL · FMY1.4°F typical missCasperWY · CPR2.3°F typical missChandlerAZ · PHX1.2°F typical missCharlestonSC · CHS2.1°F typical missCharlotteNC · CLT2.3°F typical missChesapeakeVA · NFE2.4°F typical missCheyenneWY · CYS2.1°F typical missChicagoIL · MDW2.2°F typical missChula VistaCA · SDM4.7°F typical missCincinnatiOH · LUK2.2°F typical missClevelandOH · BKL3.2°F typical missCoeur d’AleneID · COE2.2°F typical missColorado SpringsCO · COS2.6°F typical missColumbiaSC · CUB2.0°F typical missColumbusOH · CMH1.9°F typical missConcordNH · CON2.5°F typical missCorpus ChristiTX · CRP2.0°F typical missDallasTX · RBD2.4°F typical missDenverCO · APA2.5°F typical missDetroitMI · DET2.4°F typical missDurhamNC · RDU2.2°F typical missEl PasoTX · ELP1.6°F typical missEugeneOR · EUG2.7°F typical missFargoND · FAR2.5°F typical missFort WayneIN · FWA2.1°F typical missFort WorthTX · FTW2.2°F typical missFresnoCA · FAT2.1°F typical missFriscoTX · DTO2.2°F typical missGarlandTX · F462.7°F typical missGilbertAZ · FFZ1.8°F typical missGlendaleAZ · LUF1.2°F typical missGrand ForksND · GFK2.5°F typical missGreat FallsMT · GTF2.6°F typical missGreensboroNC · GSO2.3°F typical missGreenvilleSC · GMU2.2°F typical missGulfportMS · GPT1.6°F typical missHelenaMT · HLN2.9°F typical missHendersonNV · HND1.3°F typical missHoustonTX · HOU1.8°F typical missHuntsvilleAL · HSV2.1°F typical missIdaho FallsID · IDA2.0°F typical missIndianapolisIN · EYE2.2°F typical missIowa CityIA · IOW2.3°F typical missIrvineCA · SNA2.5°F typical missIrvingTX · DFW2.4°F typical missJacksonMS · HKS1.9°F typical missJacksonWY · JAC2.8°F typical missJacksonvilleFL · NIP1.6°F typical missJersey CityNJ · JRB3.6°F typical missKansas CityMO · MKC2.5°F typical missLaramieWY · LAR2.1°F typical missLaredoTX · LRD2.1°F typical missLas VegasNV · VGT1.4°F typical missLexingtonKY · LEX2.1°F typical missLincolnNE · LNK2.8°F typical missLittle RockAR · LIT2.4°F typical missLoganUT · LGU2.3°F typical missLong BeachCA · LGB2.6°F typical missLos AngelesCA · HHR2.6°F typical missLouisvilleKY · LOU2.2°F typical missLubbockTX · LBB2.3°F typical missMadisonWI · MSN2.2°F typical missManchesterNH · MHT2.3°F typical missMcKinneyTX · TKI2.2°F typical missMedfordOR · MFR3.1°F typical missMemphisTN · MEM2.3°F typical missMesaAZ · FFZ1.8°F typical missMiamiFL · MIA1.2°F typical missMilwaukeeWI · MKE2.6°F typical missMinneapolisMN · MIC2.5°F typical missMinotND · MOT2.5°F typical missMissoulaMT · MSO3.2°F typical missMobileAL · BFM2.2°F typical missMontgomeryAL · MGM2.0°F typical missNashvilleTN · BNA2.1°F typical missNew OrleansLA · NEW2.2°F typical missNew YorkNY · NYC2.1°F typical missNewarkNJ · EWR2.4°F typical missNorth Las VegasNV · LSV1.3°F typical missOaklandCA · OAK2.5°F typical missOgdenUT · OGD1.8°F typical missOklahoma CityOK · OKC2.6°F typical missOmahaNE · OMA2.8°F typical missOrlandoFL · ISM1.4°F typical missPhiladelphiaPA · PHL2.2°F typical missPhoenixAZ · PHX1.2°F typical missPittsburghPA · AGC2.0°F typical missPlanoTX · DAL2.4°F typical missPocatelloID · PIH2.0°F typical missPort St. LucieFL · FPR1.2°F typical missPortlandME · PWM2.4°F typical missPortlandOR · PDX2.2°F typical missProvoUT · PVU2.5°F typical missRaleighNC · RDU2.2°F typical missRapid CitySD · RAP2.8°F typical missRenoNV · RNO1.9°F typical missRichmondVA · RIC2.3°F typical missRiversideCA · RAL2.1°F typical missRutlandVT · RUT2.7°F typical missSacramentoCA · SAC2.1°F typical missSalemOR · SLE2.2°F typical missSalt Lake CityUT · SLC2.0°F typical missSan AntonioTX · SKF2.1°F typical missSan DiegoCA · SAN2.4°F typical missSan FranciscoCA · SFO2.5°F typical missSan JoseCA · SJC2.5°F typical missSanta AnaCA · SLI2.7°F typical missSavannahGA · SAV1.9°F typical missScottsdaleAZ · SDL1.2°F typical missSeattleWA · BFI1.8°F typical missSioux FallsSD · FSD2.6°F typical missSpokaneWA · GEG2.0°F typical missSt. GeorgeUT · SGU1.8°F typical missSt. LouisMO · STL2.3°F typical missSt. PaulMN · STP2.4°F typical missSt. PetersburgFL · SPG1.7°F typical missStocktonCA · SCK2.2°F typical missSyracuseNY · SYR2.1°F typical missTacomaWA · TIW1.7°F typical missTampaFL · TPA1.6°F typical missToledoOH · TDZ2.1°F typical missTucsonAZ · DMA1.3°F typical missTulsaOK · TUL2.6°F typical missVancouverWA · VUO2.0°F typical missVirginia BeachVA · NTU3.1°F typical missWashingtonDC · DCA2.4°F typical missWichitaKS · ICT2.6°F typical missWinston-SalemNC · GSO2.3°F typical missYakimaWA · YKM2.3°F typical miss
How to read the map
Typical miss is the average size of the error, regardless of direction.
Usually warmer or cooler is average signed error. Positive values mean forecasts averaged warmer than observed; negative values mean cooler.
Seasonal values are case-weighted from completed monthly results. High and low forecast-day windows differ by 12 hours. These are retrospective raw NBM results across multiple model eras.