High temperaturesForecast day 1
2.5°Ftypical miss
0°3°F8°+
70% came within 3°F
Usually coolerUsually warmer0.2°F cooler than observed
Local temperature forecast performance
How accurate are temperature forecasts in San Francisco, California?
Daytime highs were the harder part of the next-day temperature forecast in San Francisco. Highs missed by 2.5°F on average, compared with 1.9°F for nighttime lows.
See the current San Francisco forecast
Opens ZIP 94102 using the nearest current station, which may differ from the archive station below.
What stands out
San Francisco forecast findings
- The strongest monthly directional tendency appeared in November lows, when forecasts averaged 2.3°F cooler than observed.
- By forecast day 7, the typical miss increased to 3.7°F for highs and 2.7°F for lows, showing how precision changed farther ahead.
- On forecast day 1, June lows had the smallest typical miss (1.2°F), while December highs had the largest (4.3°F).
- Across days 1, 3, 5, and 7, San Francisco's typical error was 0.8°F lower than the national archive average.
At a glance
Forecast day 1 accuracy
Highs Lows
Lower error than the national average
San Francisco: 2.7°F typical miss National archive average: 3.5°F
Combined high and low results across forecast days 1, 3, 5, and 7.Low temperaturesForecast day 1
1.9°Ftypical miss
0°3°F8°+
86% came within 3°F
Usually coolerUsually warmer0.3°F cooler than observed
Error generally grows farther into the forecast
The dots show the typical miss on each forecast day.
See within-3°F percentages and window timing
Day 1High: 70%Low: 86%
Day 3High: 66%Low: 78%
Day 5High: 61%Low: 77%
Day 7High: 55%Low: 71%
High and low windows represent the same numbered forecast day, but the high window ends 12 hours later and therefore has 12 more hours of lead time.
How forecasts change through the year
Each tile is forecast day 1’s typical miss.
Under 2°F2–3°F3–5°FOver 5°FNot enough data
Forecasts ran coolerLittle tendencyForecasts ran warmer
High temperatures
Jan2.7°62 cases
Feb2.2°54 cases
Mar1.8°59 cases
Apr1.6°60 cases
May2.0°57 cases
Jun2.2°60 cases
Jul2.1°60 cases
Aug3.2°60 cases
Sep2.7°60 cases
Oct2.5°61 cases
Nov2.5°54 cases
Dec4.3°57 cases
Low temperatures
Jan1.9°62 cases
Feb1.5°54 cases
Mar1.4°60 cases
Apr1.6°60 cases
May1.3°58 cases
Jun1.2°60 cases
Jul1.3°59 cases
Aug1.5°61 cases
Sep2.7°60 cases
Oct3.3°62 cases
Nov3.3°54 cases
Dec1.9°57 cases
Data locationSAN FRANCISCO INTL (SFO)11.4 miles from central San Francisco · Archive 2024-08-01–2026-07-28
Based on archived raw NBM forecasts compared with observed daily highs and lows near San Francisco. Results describe this model archive, not every forecast provider.
How these numbers are calculated
The forecasts are raw NBM median temperature guidance initialized at 12Z. Results include multiple NBM model eras and are retrospective, so they describe this archive rather than guaranteeing future performance.
“Typical miss” is mean absolute error: the average size of the error regardless of direction. Warmer or cooler tendency is signed bias, which can be small even when individual errors are larger.