High temperaturesForecast day 1
2.8°Ftypical miss
0°3°F8°+
70% came within 3°F
Usually coolerUsually warmerLittle warm or cool tendency
Local temperature forecast performance
How accurate are temperature forecasts in Rapid City, South Dakota?
In Rapid City, next-day high and low temperature forecasts performed similarly: the typical miss was 2.8°F for highs and 2.9°F for lows.
See the current Rapid City forecast
Opens ZIP 57701 using the nearest current station, which may differ from the archive station below.
What stands out
Rapid City forecast findings
- The strongest monthly directional tendency appeared in January highs, when forecasts averaged 2.4°F cooler than observed.
- Error increased more quickly for daily high forecasts. From forecast day 1 to day 7, their typical miss grew by 4.1°F; day-7 errors reached 6.9°F for highs and 4.7°F for lows.
- On forecast day 1, July lows had the smallest typical miss (2.0°F), while December highs had the largest (3.7°F).
- Across days 1, 3, 5, and 7, Rapid City's typical error was 0.6°F higher than the national archive average.
At a glance
Forecast day 1 accuracy
Highs Lows
Higher error than the national average
Rapid City: 4.1°F typical miss National archive average: 3.5°F
Combined high and low results across forecast days 1, 3, 5, and 7.Low temperaturesForecast day 1
2.9°Ftypical miss
0°3°F8°+
61% came within 3°F
Usually coolerUsually warmerLittle warm or cool tendency
Error generally grows farther into the forecast
The dots show the typical miss on each forecast day.
See within-3°F percentages and window timing
Day 1High: 70%Low: 61%
Day 3High: 55%Low: 59%
Day 5High: 44%Low: 51%
Day 7High: 31%Low: 45%
High and low windows represent the same numbered forecast day, but the high window ends 12 hours later and therefore has 12 more hours of lead time.
How forecasts change through the year
Each tile is forecast day 1’s typical miss.
Under 2°F2–3°F3–5°FOver 5°FNot enough data
Forecasts ran coolerLittle tendencyForecasts ran warmer
High temperatures
Jan3.2°58 cases
Feb2.5°54 cases
Mar2.8°59 cases
Apr2.9°59 cases
May2.4°59 cases
Jun2.7°59 cases
Jul2.8°60 cases
Aug2.9°60 cases
Sep2.1°60 cases
Oct2.2°61 cases
Nov2.9°53 cases
Dec3.7°56 cases
Low temperatures
Jan3.5°61 cases
Feb2.9°54 cases
Mar3.2°59 cases
Apr2.8°59 cases
May3.1°59 cases
Jun3.0°59 cases
Jul2.0°59 cases
Aug2.6°61 cases
Sep2.7°60 cases
Oct2.6°61 cases
Nov3.1°52 cases
Dec2.9°56 cases
Data locationRAPID CITY (RAP)9.9 miles from central Rapid City · Archive 2024-08-01–2026-07-28
Based on archived raw NBM forecasts compared with observed daily highs and lows near Rapid City. Results describe this model archive, not every forecast provider.
How these numbers are calculated
The forecasts are raw NBM median temperature guidance initialized at 12Z. Results include multiple NBM model eras and are retrospective, so they describe this archive rather than guaranteeing future performance.
“Typical miss” is mean absolute error: the average size of the error regardless of direction. Warmer or cooler tendency is signed bias, which can be small even when individual errors are larger.