High temperaturesForecast day 1
2.8°Ftypical miss
0°3°F8°+
68% came within 3°F
Usually coolerUsually warmer0.7°F cooler than observed
Local temperature forecast performance
How accurate are temperature forecasts in Bismarck, North Dakota?
Nighttime lows were less predictable than daytime highs in Bismarck's next-day record. Lows missed by 3.2°F on average, compared with 2.8°F for highs.
See the current Bismarck forecast
Opens ZIP 58501 using the nearest current station, which may differ from the archive station below.
What stands out
Bismarck forecast findings
- The strongest monthly directional tendency appeared in February lows, when forecasts averaged 3.4°F warmer than observed.
- Error increased more quickly for daily high forecasts. From forecast day 1 to day 7, their typical miss grew by 3.8°F; day-7 errors reached 6.6°F for highs and 5.1°F for lows.
- On forecast day 1, June highs had the smallest typical miss (2.1°F), while February lows had the largest (4.4°F).
- Across days 1, 3, 5, and 7, Bismarck's typical error was 0.7°F higher than the national archive average.
At a glance
Forecast day 1 accuracy
Highs Lows
Higher error than the national average
Bismarck: 4.3°F typical miss National archive average: 3.5°F
Combined high and low results across forecast days 1, 3, 5, and 7.Low temperaturesForecast day 1
3.2°Ftypical miss
0°3°F8°+
61% came within 3°F
Usually coolerUsually warmer1.4°F warmer than observed
Error generally grows farther into the forecast
The dots show the typical miss on each forecast day.
See within-3°F percentages and window timing
Day 1High: 68%Low: 61%
Day 3High: 54%Low: 49%
Day 5High: 41%Low: 46%
Day 7High: 32%Low: 40%
High and low windows represent the same numbered forecast day, but the high window ends 12 hours later and therefore has 12 more hours of lead time.
How forecasts change through the year
Each tile is forecast day 1’s typical miss.
Under 2°F2–3°F3–5°FOver 5°FNot enough data
Forecasts ran coolerLittle tendencyForecasts ran warmer
High temperatures
Jan2.7°51 cases
Feb2.8°54 cases
Mar3.0°59 cases
Apr2.9°60 cases
May2.2°59 cases
Jun2.1°59 cases
Jul2.4°58 cases
Aug2.7°58 cases
Sep3.4°58 cases
Oct2.9°57 cases
Nov2.9°50 cases
Dec3.4°56 cases
Low temperatures
Jan3.4°53 cases
Feb4.4°54 cases
Mar3.8°59 cases
Apr2.8°60 cases
May2.7°59 cases
Jun2.8°60 cases
Jul2.3°57 cases
Aug2.3°59 cases
Sep3.7°58 cases
Oct3.6°55 cases
Nov3.1°51 cases
Dec3.4°54 cases
Data locationBISMARCK (BIS)3.0 miles from central Bismarck · Archive 2024-08-01–2026-07-28
Based on archived raw NBM forecasts compared with observed daily highs and lows near Bismarck. Results describe this model archive, not every forecast provider.
How these numbers are calculated
The forecasts are raw NBM median temperature guidance initialized at 12Z. Results include multiple NBM model eras and are retrospective, so they describe this archive rather than guaranteeing future performance.
“Typical miss” is mean absolute error: the average size of the error regardless of direction. Warmer or cooler tendency is signed bias, which can be small even when individual errors are larger.