ModelSpread
A forecast with its uncertainty and track record
Temperature outlook
Choose a day
The high and low numbers are best estimates. Select a day to see its likely ranges.
Selected forecast
Selected day
The likely range is an experimental estimate of uncertainty based on past forecast errors.
How to read this: the large number is the best estimate. The range shows a wider set of temperatures worth planning around.
Put the range to work
What are you planning for?
This compares the temperature with the experimental range; it is not a precise probability.
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Notification preview
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This shows alerts that a future notification service would send. Nothing is emailed.
Local track record
How have similar forecasts performed?
See detailed accuracy
Error over the past year
Compare how daily high and low forecast errors changed by month.
View monthly values
About this forecast and its limitations
What “experimental” means
Location used
Selected-day technical details
Important distinction
The local accuracy figures describe raw NBM guidance across several model versions. They are useful historical context, but they do not independently validate today’s calibrated range.